Phase Consultores: "In five years, Peru will quadruple its production of blueberries"
The Peruvian guilds of fruit producers and exporters forecast that 2023 will produce around 150 a thousand tons of blueberries in Peru, four times higher than the current Peruvian production, which oscillates at 40 a thousand tons.
This growth, in addition to having a great impact for the international blueberry production and export industry, will also have a great impact on the country's economy. For this analysis, El Comercio de Lima spoke with the economic advisory company Phase Consultores.
Employment and growth
Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase, confirms this great growth projected for the production of Peruvian blueberries at 2023 and analyzes the possible scenarios that open up on the issue of poverty and rural development: "It is relevant to keep in mind the case of Ica. It is a region that exploited its agricultural potential in a few years, so it went from a poverty rate of 42,6% in 2002 to indexes close to 8% at present. To the point that it is the region that has created more quality jobs, above economically important regions such as Arequipa or La Libertad itself, and Lima, where quality employment is rather decreasing"Explains and clarifies that in Ica employment has not been concentrated in the agricultural sector alone, but rather"there has also been dynamism in activities such as construction, real estate activities and hotels and restaurants", Affirms the executive, assuring that"this is a mirror in which the La Libertad region can be seen, which by this factor could generate around 50 thousand annual jobs during the season".
What effects will it have on the economy and agricultural production?
In a few years, Peru has gone from not producing blueberries to generating almost 6% of world production. This already has a macroeconomic impact that for this year would represent between 0,20% and 0,25% of GDP or between 2,8% and 3,5% of agricultural production, that is, between USD400 and USD500 million, which will be concentrated in the La Libertad region.
What risks do you notice in the exponential growth of this business?
The risk is the typical one observed in the agricultural sector: overproduction concentrated in a short period of time. To the extent that a product shows high profitability, a favorable effect is generated for its production by new participants, who tend to increase the volume produced until the market is saturated. Indeed, even in developed countries such problems are observed, as evidenced by the recent milk crisis in France.
The manager of Phase states that the Peruvian State and its Government should guide and guide this explosive increase in production through an adequate provision of information regarding prices, identification of products with a strong expansion of the offer and suggestion of alternative products. . He also argues that the promotion of small producers is key in this process.
"We are around the 40 thousand tons produced per year and Chile is already in 100 thousand. Together we produce and export around 20% of world production, so a very rapid increase can have a significant downward impact on prices received by local producers", Warns in his analysis.
Phase is one of the main consulting services companies in Peru and Latin America and its manager and director, Juan Carlos Odar, has a Master's degree in Economics from the Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona) and a Master's degree in Economics from the University of Chile. He was an Advisor to the Ministry of the Economy of Peru and a member of about twenty boards of private companies.
Source: Martín Carrillo O. - Blueberries Consulting
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