FAO-OECD: Latin America and the Caribbean will be responsible for 25% of world exports of agricultural and fishery products in 2028
For the 2028 year, Latin America and the Caribbean will respond for more than 25% of global exports of agricultural and fishery products, says the new report Agricultural Perspectives 2019-2028, of the OECD and FAO.
The joint report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations points out that agricultural production in the region will continue to grow, but that the decrease in domestic and international demand may contribute to slower growth over the next decade.
Despite this, the region will see a growth of 22% in its crops and a growth of 16% in its livestock products in the next decade, seven and two percentage points higher than the global average, respectively.
The increase in exports from the region will also limit the general deceleration of production, so that trade opening will continue to be of great importance for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Export growth will also slow down, but the region's comparative advantage in many agricultural products means it can capture a larger share of world markets.
For the basic products, such as corn, rice and beef, a greater growth of the international demand with respect to the domestic one will mean that a greater part of the production will be destined for export in the next decade.
While overall trade in agricultural and fishery commodities will continue to expand over the next decade, the pace will be slower (around 1,3 annual percent) than the average rate of 3,3 percent of the past 10 years.
According to the report, agricultural and fisheries production in Latin America and the Caribbean has grown by an average of 2,7% per year (in constant US dollars of 2010, including forestry) in the last two decades. Currently, Latin America and the Caribbean accounts for 14 percent of world agricultural production and 23 percent of exports of agricultural and fishing commodities.
Less growth in cereal production
It is expected that the growth of cereal production will decrease in the next decade, with annual growth rates of around half of those observed in the last two decades for the main cereal producing countries.
For 2028, the region is expected to produce 233.5 mega tons (Mt) of corn (18% of the world total), 22.1 Mt of coarse grains (3% of the world total), 21.4 Mt of rice (4% of the world total) and 37.3 Mt of wheat (11% of world total).
Soybean production will continue to grow over the next decade, and further expansion of land use for soybeans is projected at the expense of pastures, although a third of the increase in harvested area will come from double crops (two crops in sequence during same year). However, it is expected that the growth rate of annual production for the region as a whole will decrease from the 6.9% seen in the previous two decades, to the 2.8% for the next decade.
The average annual growth in beef and veal production will slow slightly in the next decade-to 1,2% per year-compared to the 1,4% in the previous two decades. It is projected that fish production will grow by 12% during the next decade.
Changes in domestic demand for food; more meat, fruits and vegetables, less staple foods
The report predicts an increase in domestic demand for proteins of animal origin. It is expected that the per capita consumption of beef, veal and pork will grow around 10% in the next decade (12% fish, 15% birds). Thus, for 2028, the consumption of poultry, of 34,2 kg per capita per year, will represent 42,1% of the total consumption of meat. This is 14.8 percentage points higher than in the middle of the 90.
The FAO and the OECD predict a higher consumption of fruits, vegetables, meats, dairy products and fish compared to staple foods such as corn, rice and beans. It is expected that the per capita consumption of corn will decrease by 4.3% in the next decade.
Sustainable agriculture and better food systems
According to the FAO-OECD report, the challenges for the future in Latin America and the Caribbean lie in ensuring that future agricultural growth is more sustainable and inclusive than it was in the past, in a context of lower demand and international prices Lower.
Securing a more sustainable and inclusive path for future agricultural growth will depend on necessary progress in the areas of nutrition, social and environmental protection and support for livelihoods, as rural poverty, hunger and obesity are increasing in the region .
The report indicates that there are "strong growth opportunities" in the region to produce high-value fruits and vegetables, which provide better opportunities for family farming and healthier diets for the population. Specific policies could help farmers and consumers take advantage of these opportunities, while protecting the region's natural resource base.
Improved food systems and innovative food security and nutrition policies are also necessary to contain the recent increase in hunger, and the decades-long increase in obesity, since the region has the second highest prevalence of overweight and obese people in the world. the world, only behind North America.
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