Agro would grow around the 4% in 2018, driven by the dynamism of fruit growing
Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Furche, valued the export of fruits as one of the engines of the economy. However, he is concerned about the stagnation in cereal production.
Agriculture was positioned as one of the most dynamic activities of the year. Despite a slight drop in the exchange rate in recent times, the dollar has remained at levels beneficial to agricultural exporters and the climate has accompanied producers.
According to government projections, expectations continue to be in positive territory for next year. The Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Furche, told "El Mercurio" that "the sector has solid foundations to continue its path of growth, supported by the sustained demand for food, both locally and in foreign markets, in which high standards of animal and plant health that the country has, and in the commercial agreements that Chile has with other countries.
For 2018, the secretary of state expects the agricultural sector to grow, on average, between 3 and 4% compared to this year. Thus, the activity would once again surpass the projected growth of the Chilean economy for next year.
Regarding the subsectors, he especially emphasized fruit growing, which was positioned as the most dynamic area of agriculture. “This season a record cherry harvest is expected. It also looks very positive for table grapes, which will be one of the featured fruits in this period. There are also excellent prospects for dried fruit," Furche said.
The minister also stressed that forestry and viticulture enjoy good prospects. In addition, he foresees a recovery in the dairy and livestock sector. However, in the field of cereals he was more cautious. “The scenario in terms of cereal production looks rather flat. There is a stagnation. There is a decrease in the area planted, ”he said.
The fruit, the biggest boost in the sector
Positive perspectives for fruit growing. The president of the Association of Fruit Exporters, Ronald Bown, expects that in the 2017-2018 season the shipments will exceed the 2,8 million tons of the previous year and grow on an 4,5%, that is, an increase similar to the rise of the season previous. The union leader pointed out that cherries shipments would be between one thousand tons and one thousand tons, which would set a new record. It also sees better prospects than last year in exports of blueberries and table grapes. In terms of international markets, Bown expects the United States to remain the main destination, although he stressed the importance that Asia is acquiring, where more than 110 thousand tons are being exported.
The president of the Federation of Fruit Producers, Luis Schmidt, agreed with Bown regarding the projected growth in volume and stressed that the dynamism of fruit growing will be favored by species such as cherries, table grapes, apples, plums, nectarines and walnuts. However, he is concerned about possible drops in the volume of avocados and pears produced. “We should have a reasonable season. There are many investments in European cherries, walnuts and hazelnuts. As long as agriculture has a dollar close to $620, the sector will be calm”, affirmed the union leader.
Wines: privilege quality and prices
The wine subsector would also exhibit growth, which would be half in value and half in volume. The president of the Vinos de Chile guild, Mario Pablo Silva, estimated that the activity will grow next year around 5,7% in value compared to 2017. Likewise, wine exports would have a rise close to 6,8% compared to 2017, while in the local market the increase would be around 3,5%.
Silva admitted that "in the past we grew more in volume than in price, and today the goal is to change that business model." The foregoing is part of the 2025 Strategy that the union promoted and is implementing, which is aimed at promoting products over US$ 60 per box in key destinations, such as China, Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. However, considering that the US market is the most complex for Chilean wine, they hope to make some reconsiderations in the promotion.
Regarding the local market, Silva said that the average growth of the last four years was 5,5% in volume and that this year, due to lower consumption, there is likely to be a rise around 1%. Despite the complexity of the exercise, he assured that the outlook is positive for 2018 and that he expects to resume growth, which would fluctuate around 5% on average for next year.
Pick-up option for dairymen
The dairy subsector could present a rebound for 2018. The president of the Federation of Milk Producers, Rodrigo Lavín, said that "if the weather is with us and the industry assumes a more leading role in terms of signals to the primary sector, we will probably have a better scenario compared to the current year”. Of course, he pointed out that the basis of comparison will be low. The helmsman affirmed that a better performance of the national economy and a stable external market could boost Chilean dairy exports and the price paid to the producer more vigorously.
The general manager of Consorcio Lechero, Sebastián Gánderats, expects "an increase of close to 2% in the receipt of milk, if environmental conditions allow it, and an increase in internal consumption in figures of approximately 2%, mainly pressured by higher consumption of cheeses and butter”. Regarding exports, the executive added that "if we continue to promote the sale of valuable products to already established markets such as the United States and other countries in the region, shipments could continue the positive trend of 2017." In addition, he highlighted the launch in January of the sector's first Sustainable Development Agenda for 2021.
Cattle ranch faces different challenges
A period of changes could face the meat subsector, facing next year. The president of Fedecarne, Carlos González, hopes that the activity will continue with live cattle prices at good levels, although he stated that "the growth of the sector is seriously threatened by the decrease in the cattle mass in Chile and the worrying increase in meat imports. He added that hopefully these “comply with standards similar to those required in Chile. A study should be ready in 2018 that tells us what improvements we can make to the classification standard to improve competitiveness and transparency”.
The general manager of the Association of Meat Slaughtering Plants, Rafael Lecaros, estimated for 2018 a bovine slaughter of close to 700 heads, due to a retention of females and the trend drop in the cattle mass. He highlighted that 2018 will be a year of great added value, which will allow quantity to be replaced by price. "There are already firms that are requesting sanitary openings to send processed meats to the main markets," he revealed.
The president of the Osorno Agricultural and Livestock Society, Christian Arnzt, indicated that "the standing export market looks interesting and will continue to be so in 2018. In turn, as the international scenario is improving, export opportunities are once again seen to high-value markets. Taking advantage of them will depend on the price of the dollar.”
Source: El Mercurio
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