Proarándanos has lowered its fifth projection for Peruvian fresh blueberry exports for the 2026/27 season to approximately 366 tons. This figure is 4,2% lower than the 382 tons estimated in September and 4,4% lower than the approximately 383 tons exported during the previous season.

The new forecast also comes with nearly 15% more hectares in production, according to the industry association. Even with this increased area, the projected export volume remains below the 2025/26 year-end figure.

Through week 38, Peru had exported 136 tons, 18,7% more than the 115 tons accumulated during the same period of the previous season. However, Proarándanos warns that this result no longer reflects the marked change in trend observed in recent weeks.

From 404 to 366 tons in two reviews

The projected closing volume has decreased in the last three estimates. In August it stood at approximately 404 tons, in September it fell to 382, and now it has been reduced to 366 tons.

There is a difference of approximately 38 tons, or about 9,4%, between the August projection and the current one. The September update already anticipated that the adjustment would be concentrated mainly in the middle and final stages of the season.

The fifth projection confirms this trend. Proarándanos now indicates that recent weeks show a significant decrease in export volumes and, for the first time, places the 2026/27 closing figure below the previous season.

© Proazulandanos

The correction deepens over the next eight weeks

From week 39 to the end of the year, Proarándanos estimates exports of approximately 229 tons, 14,2% less than the 268 tons recorded during the same period in 2025/26.

The difference will be more pronounced in the short term. For the next eight weeks, the new projection anticipates 108 tons, compared to the 156 tons exported during the same period last season. That's 48 tons less, equivalent to a 31,2% drop.

Therefore, the cumulative growth of 18,7% does not contradict the downward revision. Peru maintains a higher export volume than a year ago through week 38, but the forecast for the coming period is considerably lower.

From a peak week to a plateau in exports

The new projection also changes the expected shape of this section of the export curve.

In September, Proarándanos still placed the peak week in week 42, with an approximate volume of 16,5 tons.

Now the union indicates that, rather than a peak week, it expects a plateau over the next eight weeks, with an average of around 13,5 tons per week.

Proarándanos concludes that this fifth update confirms that the impact of El Niño has been more severe than anticipated, in contrast to the strong start to the season. The association announced a new review in two weeks and noted that it will continue to publish updates more frequently while these conditions persist.

The modification is significant because the adjustment is no longer limited to the estimated volume at the end of the season. It also changes the expected distribution of exports during one of the central periods of the campaign, precisely where the previous projection still anticipated the highest weekly concentration.

In the organic segment, however, the estimate remains virtually unchanged from September. The projected total is 24,9 tons, with the peak week expected in week 47, at approximately 1,1 tons. Last season, the peak was reached in week 40, with 1,9 tons.

© Proazulandanos

Proarándanos concludes that this fifth update confirms that the impact of El Niño has been more severe than anticipated, in contrast to the strong start to the season. The association announced a new review in two weeks and noted that it will continue to publish updates more frequently while these conditions persist.

Read also:

• Peruvian blueberries: the quality that defines their value in international markets
• Peruvian blueberries: Asia demands an increasingly segmented strategy
• Hong Kong opens a new scenario for Peruvian blueberries
• Proarándanos reduces its projection for Peruvian blueberry exports to 382 tons
• Conventional blueberry production sustains Peruvian blueberry export growth, while organic production falls 33% short of projections.
• Peru surpasses 66 tons of blueberry exports
• Luis Miguel Vegas: Peru doubles blueberry production, but El Niño forces cautious projections