• Key trends that will shape the future of the industry include increasingly advanced genetics and increased focus by producers on productivity and labor efficiency, according to a recent study by RaboResearch.

A new report from Rabobank shows a number of significant changes across several regions that will set the global blueberry industry up for continued success.

Key trends shaping the future of the industry include increasingly advanced genetics and a greater focus by producers on labour productivity and efficiency, according to a recent study by RaboResearch.

The 2023-24 blueberry season was unique, marking the first decline in exports in 15 seasons due to weather events that reduced production in major countries. Overall, global exports fell by 10%, and recovery in production and exports is expected to take longer than initially anticipated.

“For 2024-25, we expect record exports, but only 3% higher than the 2022-23 season,” said David Magaña, senior fresh produce analyst at RaboResearch, adding that “in subsequent seasons, we anticipate a return to previous growth rates, potentially surpassing the 1 million metric ton milestone by the 2027-28 season.”

While China will remain the world leader in production, it will continue to import South American supply during the off-season with a focus on quality, the statement said. In the 2023-24 season, South American blueberry exports recorded their first decline in 11 seasons and only the second since the 2001-02 season, the report said.

Nevertheless, Peru is expected to continue to dominate the global blueberry trade, although the underlying factors contributing to growth are changing. “Varietal renewal will support further growth in fresh blueberry exports,” Magaña added, noting that “a portion of the new plantings will replace old varieties and orchards.

And with a higher proportion of new patented varieties, we expect further growth, driven by higher yields rather than increased planted area.”

A diversified portfolio of new cultivars will allow growers in various regions to extend the production season in the near future, the release said. In Peru, the peak season is expected to extend from a few weeks in previous seasons to a couple of months in the medium term. This flattening of the production curve will allow for a more organized marketing process, avoiding market saturation and subsequent price drops, according to Rabobank.

Less availability of workers

Labor will continue to be a major challenge for growers around the world, according to Rabobank, as in most regions, the availability of workers is decreasing, which will increase competition from other sectors.

For labor-intensive crops such as blueberries, recruiting enough workers and managing their accommodation and transportation is a major challenge for growers, particularly during the harvest period.

“As labor becomes a challenge, we expect growers to focus more on this issue and implement changes such as switching to varieties with larger berries or better berry shedding ability, adopting mechanized harvesting, automating pre- and post-harvest processes, reducing the number of harvests and extending the season,” Magaña said.

He added: “Mechanized harvesting is undergoing a steep learning curve and needs to be aligned with the orchard structure and the variety grown,” he added. “If all these factors are taken into account, it will be successful. The question is when.”