A while ago, a producer asked me: How much more can demand for blueberries grow? Is there a ceiling? These are questions many are asking, and they are difficult to answer. So far, everything indicates that the blueberry continues to advance in its conquest of the world. It seems to be the ideal fruit due to its flavor, color, brightness, and size; in addition to its practicality and health-promoting qualities. Furthermore, it is available year-round, thanks to the fact that it can be grown in many temperate and subtropical regions. As an advantage over other berries, it is more transportable, maintaining its quality after several weeks of travel by ship and truck. Thus, it is perfectly suited to what today's consumers and retailers are looking for. As is often the case, some voices have also emerged warning about the negative effects of its cultivation and transportation on the environment, especially regarding the use of water, agrochemicals, and the plastic packaging required for its sale. But these opinions still do not make enough noise and do not slow down the success of the blueberry among consumers around the world. Everything indicates that for now it will remain the "king of fruits," and it is unknown how far its consumption may grow.

But the situation is different when analyzing this business from a production and commercial perspective: success is no longer guaranteed here. For years, blueberries were a very profitable crop, which is why their cultivation exploded in many regions of the world. Supply grew year after year, and demand followed suit. Fears of insufficient sales did not arise, except in a few specific situations. But the problem that arose was that the high prices could not be sustained. Current prices are far from those of the past.

The recently concluded 2024/25 Southern Hemisphere crop season was no exception. Peru, the leading exporter to the South and the world, recovered from the decline suffered in 2023/24. Its production returned to full strength and grew as young plantations entered the production cycle. Thus, Peru closed a new record crop season, surpassing 300.000 tons exported for the first time. Other countries in the Southern Hemisphere were not as fortunate. Their expansion slowed a few years ago, and exports stabilized or even declined.

Such is the case of Chile, which went from exporting 110.000 tons in 2017/18 and 2018/19 to 85-90.000 tons over the last three years. South African shipments stabilized at around 3-20 tons. Argentina and Uruguay sharply reduced their exports, becoming niche suppliers. From exporting a combined 24.000 tons 20.000 years ago, they dropped to 10 tons. The reasons for this reduction are very simple: the low prices being paid make cultivation in these countries unprofitable, and they cannot compete with the advantages enjoyed by Peru. This is forcing competitors to change their strategy or withdraw from the business.

But in Peru, too, the situation is no longer so favorable. Low returns are beginning to erode profits and are forcing a rethinking of the business, making adjustments and becoming more efficient. Despite this, Peru will continue to grow. There remains a large area that is just now entering production. Added to this is the fact that cultivation techniques are improving, as well as the replacement of certain varieties with new ones that are more efficient, richer, and more stable. Therefore, the southern supply will be even more dominated by Peru: it is estimated that in the next season, three out of four blueberries in the southern hemisphere will be from Peru. Furthermore, given the varietal replacement currently taking place, the blueberry will be of better quality, especially in terms of flavor and post-harvest life. But despite these efforts, prices will remain low, except in the case of specific shortages, as occurred in 3/4.